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3rd March 2025
The knee-jerk, politically correct response to "Is it alright to rely on gut instinct when hiring?" is a resounding "No!" And for good reason. Data screams at us: gut feelings are fickle, biased, and often downright wrong.
Research, like that cited by Beardwell and the CIPD, highlights the stark reality. Unstructured interviews, those casual "chats" heavily reliant on intuition, have a dismal predictive validity of 0.31. Compare that to structured interviews (0.62), work samples (0.55), or ability tests (0.54), and the choice seems clear. We're practically throwing darts blindfolded when we rely on gut alone.
Furthermore, studies consistently expose the inherent flaws of intuition. Unconscious biases, unrelated to a candidate's actual skills, can heavily skew our judgment. So, case closed, right? Gut instinct is a hiring hazard.
Not so fast.
The reality is far more nuanced. While data-driven approaches are crucial, they can't capture everything. Can you objectively measure a candidate's "sales savvy" or their ability to build rapport quickly? These intangible qualities often require a judgment call, a blend of objective data and, yes, that elusive gut feeling.
The Limitations of Pure Objectivity
It's impossible to quantify every aspect of a candidate's potential. At some point, human judgment must step in. The key is to understand when and how to leverage intuition effectively.
Harnessing the Power of the Unconscious Mind
Here's where things get interesting. Joint research from the Kellogg School of Management and Nijmegen University suggests our unconscious mind might be a powerful ally in complex decision-making. It excels at processing vast amounts of information, prioritising relevant data, and seeing the bigger picture. In essence, it can help us make sense of the intricate puzzle of hiring.
But how do we tap into this unconscious powerhouse? The research points to a simple yet profound method: give it time.
Avoid snap judgments. Let the information percolate. Allow your unconscious mind to work its magic. This means taking a break, focusing on something else, or, ideally, sleeping on it. The unconscious mind is particularly active during sleep, allowing it to sift through the data and arrive at a more informed conclusion.
Beyond Sleep: Cultivating Intuition
This isn't just academic theory. The Harvard Business Review has observed that high-level executives routinely rely on intuition when faced with complex problems that defy purely logical solutions. They advocate for techniques like jogging, daydreaming, listening to music, and meditation to access this deeper level of processing.
So, if you can't delay the hiring decision overnight, consider a midday run or a mindful lunch break. Give your mind a chance to process the information beyond the surface level.
The Key Takeaway: Informed Intuition
Ultimately, relying on gut instinct in hiring isn't about ignoring data. It's about recognizing its limitations and using intuition strategically.
As you hire for more senior roles, the reliance on intuition naturally increases. But remember, a well-informed gut feeling is far more reliable than a knee-jerk reaction. Feed your conscious mind with solid data, and then allow your unconscious mind to work its magic. The result? A more holistic and effective hiring process.
Simon Owens, Director, Kaizen Talent Solutions simon@kaizen-ts.co.uk